Nouriel Roubini, famous professor of economics at New York University, prophesies to the world ten years “The Very Great Depression”. And even if the world economy this year will recover from the impact of the pandemic, this recovery process will be “anemic,” writes Postimees.
Ruby, who was one of the first to predict the crisis in 2008, warned that this time we will have an “unprecedented” recession. “During the global financial crisis, it took about three years for total production to fall sharply,” explains the professor. – This time it did not take three years or even three months. In three weeks, each component was in a free fall.
Rubin estimates that the economy could recover on a U-shaped or even L-shaped “Very Great Depression” trajectory in the next decade.
U-shaped trajectory, when the decline is gradual, as well as the subsequent growth of the economy. Variant L is the most pessimistic scenario with a sharp collapse and subsequent depression that would prevent the economy from recovering to pre-crisis levels.
In both rich and poor countries, many jobs have been lost because of constraints to prevent the virus from spreading. “These jobs will only recover partially, with low wages, no additional benefits, with part-time employment,” says Roubini. – The average worker’s job and income are even more precarious than before”.
The disappearance of restrictions does not mean economic recovery yet. “You’re opening a store, but the question is whether customers will come back. Most malls in China are still empty. Half the flights aren’t. Shopping in Germany is open, but who wants to go shopping?” – asks the economist.
According to Roubini, Asian countries are recovering better than others. But the gap between the United States and China is widening, and a number of Asian countries have to choose which side to stay on. Both sides say to the rest of the world “you’re either with us or against us,” explains Roubini. – You’re either using my AI system, 5G, my technology and my robotics. Or you’re using it with my opponent. The world can be even more divided.”
Professor Roubini was nicknamed “Doctor of the Last Judgment” for his grim predictions as he constantly predicted the collapse of the world economy. According to him, he would have preferred to call himself, on the contrary, “Doctor the Realist”.
“When everyone said China would face a difficult landing in 2015, I said it would be bumpy,” Rubini assures. – I was actually more optimistic than Wall Street. People who say I’m like a broken watch that shows the right time twice a day are not watching me.