Armed conflict between Poland and Belarus is unlikely to happen. This opinion was expressed by Deputy Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski, leader of Poland’s ruling party “Law and Justice,” commenting on the situation with migrants on the border between the countries on November 16.
“We already have a hybrid war, but a war with weapons is not yet, rather, on the horizon. I use this word – “rather” – because we are dealing with an unpredictable enemy,” he said in an interview with Polish Radio.
Relations between the two countries have worsened against the background of the migration crisis, which has been observed on the border of Belarus and Poland since the beginning of November. On November 8, a large group of refugees approached the border in the forest belt from the side of Belarus. The migrants cut barbed wire and asked to be let into the territory of the European Union.
Poland said the brutal attack on the border was the first in 30 years. European countries blame Belarus for the migration crisis, denying its involvement in the increased flow of refugees.
German political analyst Alexander Rahr stated on November 13th that the situation with migrants might lead to the change of power in a number of European countries.
He also noted that now the refugees who want to enter the European Union have nothing to lose. The expert compared the current situation to the influx of migrants into the EU in 2015.
On the same day, British Chief of Defense Staff Nicholas Carter pointed out that today the threat of accidental conflicts has increased compared to the times of the Cold War. Commenting on the situation on the Belarusian-Polish border, he stressed that none of the scenarios “can surprise him anymore.