Pollen can predict the end of the COVID-19 season

Scientists have described the exact relationship between the occurrence of pollen in the air and the rapid decline in respiratory diseases, including influenza and COVID-19.

Therefore, they concluded that the spread of coronavirus will decrease in summer and grow in autumn and winter when flowering stops and solar activity decreases. Russian experts consider these conclusions to be premature.

“Pollen is known to play a role in immunoactivation and seems to create bioaerosol, which reduces the number of influenza-like viruses. We therefore assume that its appearance, combined with weather variables, may explain the seasonality of influenza epidemics and other respiratory diseases, including COVID-19,” says the text of the preprint.

The study found an exact inverse correlation between dust and changes in influenza incidence. The dependence was stronger after taking into account the time of incubation of the virus.

The concentration of pollen in the air was strongly related to the number of dry and sunny days. After all, this is the weather flowers like. This in itself can be a deterrent to the spread of infections.

On the other hand, flowering begins at certain air temperatures and solar activity, which also affect the virus – high temperatures and ultraviolet reduce the spread of viruses.

Mathematical models for predicting influenza-like diseases, including climate data, temperature, humidity and the measurement of plant pollen in the air as variables, are important.

There is a lot of work on the impact of pollen on immunity and some results are quite contradictory. The article, for example, shows that pollen, on the contrary, suppresses innate immunity.

Allergy is a violation of the immune response. Immunoglobulin E appears in the body, by which it is possible to judge that not what should happen to the protection of the body.