Reality can be a simulation with a 50% probability

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Professor Nick Bostrom from Oxford University suggested in 2003 that our life is nothing more than a computer simulation created by some highly developed creatures. The idea voiced by Bostrom has fascinated many scientists, so in recent years it has been tried many times to prove or disprove it.

In his work “Proof of Simulation,” Nick Bostrom cited three statements, at least one of which is true. The first is that it is very likely that human civilization will extinct before the “post-human” phase. The second is that once in the “post-human” phase, each civilization is unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of its evolutionary history. Third, we almost certainly live in simulations.

David Kipping from Columbia University studied the “Bostrom’s trilemma” and proved that humanity is fifty percent likely to live in a simulation. In doing so, Kipping turned the Bostrom’s trilemma into a dilemma by combining the first two statements.

The scientist appropriated to the variants the so-called a priori probability – that is, the probability that cannot be supported by the existing knowledge (because the knowledge needed for this simply does not exist). In general, it is quite simple – we either live in a simulation or we do not.