Typical situation: summing up the U.S. elections may take weeks

The presidential election in 2020 demonstrated the increasing polarization of American society. This was stated by the interviewed experts. Due to the coronavirus pandemic and unprecedented early voting the counting of ballots was delayed in some key states.

According to preliminary data, Donald Trump may remain the owner of the White House. However, the gap between him and Joe Biden is so small that the result will be able to surprise in any case. The outcome of the fight between a Republican and a Democrat will be decided by only a few electors. However, it is unlikely that it will be known on November 4 – the case may reach the Supreme Court, which means that the process of determining the winner risks dragging on for many weeks.

From them the poll is not large.

While 2016 hit the U.S. electoral sociology hard, the year 2020 has achieved it. And it doesn’t matter who won the election race anymore: the gap between Joe Biden and Donald Trump nationwide was less than 2%. That means that all the predictions that gave the Democrat an advantage of 8%, 10% and even 17% were, to put it mildly, inaccurate. And it was at least reckless to give victory to a former vice president of Barack Obama’s time, which media resources like CNN were actively doing, based on these studies.

Who and where were interviewed by the sociological centers when Donald Trump, in their opinion, lost to Joe Biden in the electoral college (538 votes) with a crushing score of 353 to 185? It is clear that the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic crisis it has caused have affected the chances of the incumbent president to remain head of the White House. But knowingly making him an outsider, without considering Donald Trump’s ability to mobilize and engage the masses at the right time, actually meant playing an open game on the Democrats’ side. However, impartiality and independence were out of the question.

There may be several reasons for this. The most common – in the case of the CNN, Washington Post or New York Times, for example – is a frank sympathy for Joe Biden and a four-year media war with a Republican president. On the other hand, a Democrat and more independent research most often provided a comfortable advantage of about 5 percent. The problem is that, like four years ago, it was something shameful for many to admit to supporting Donald Trump. In addition, hesitant voters in so-called swing states often say one thing and vote differently. Moreover, such a fickle American could change his decision at the very last moment. This was well demonstrated by the results of the elections in Florida, where Donald Trump seriously lost in the polls, and in the end won with a reserve.

The key ones were lost.

The number of voters in each candidate’s piggy bank was 238 for Joe Biden and 213 for Donald Trump. At the same time, both politicians managed to declare that they have no doubts about the final triumph. All eyes are on the results in Pennsylvania (20 voters), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Georgia (16) and Wisconsin (10). In all these states, the Republican led the way. With 95 percent of the vote counted, a Democrat pulled out of Wisconsin. One way or another, the teller got stuck, and some state authorities said it would take several days to finalize the mailing lists. Experts believe that the case may go to the Supreme Court, which will eventually have to determine the winner.

– The fight is not over yet, and it is very likely that there will be no court proceedings. Because of the controversial decision of the Pennsylvania courts allowing to extend the counting of ballots until Friday, the votes of 20 voters of this state remain suspended, who can decide the fate of the entire campaign.

– Typically, it is believed that if data after counting 60 percent formed a trend, it will not change after processing 90 percent. If we look at these states, the trend is in Trump’s favor, but the votes are hanging in the air, as is the outcome of the election. Trump, of course, is ready to go to the Supreme Court.

On the other hand, the 2020 elections showed an increasing split in American society. And although division has always been characteristic of the United States, now the red lines are brighter and the heat is stronger.

Rally, or you will lose.

Meanwhile, the Americans have already poured into the streets of major cities and are preparing to revolt against the election results. Both Republican and Democrat supporters intend to marry their candidate. The hottest situation is for Donald Trump in Washington. The U.S. capital does not complain about the Republican at all: after 66% of the votes were counted, Joe Biden was supported by more than 212 thousand, and the incumbent president – only 12 thousand. It is here that the greatest unrest among supporters of the Democrat is expected.

– Roads are blocked, helicopters are flying, young people are pulling up to the White House. In the beginning, everything was quite peaceful and beautiful. For example, a truck pulled up to one of the streets, and speakers, a drum kit, tools, and a DJ were installed on it.