All military analysts and all the world’s media continue to follow the pulling of Russian troops to the borders of Ukraine. Along the way, those who can, and even those who cannot, try to make some predictions about the development of the situation.
In general terms (if some readers do not have time or traffic to watch everything) it all comes down to the fact that today the Russian Federation as an opponent is not even considered by Washington – the forces and means are not comparable. America’s real adversary and competitor is China, around which everything is now revolving. Just yesterday, for example, the Chinese sent troops into Myanmar, officially explaining this as “protection of pipelines and the Chinese population:
On roughly the same pretext China will one day send troops to Russia, but for now it is busy playing strategic games with the United States, with which it is using the Russian Federation as a pawn. By pushing the Kremlin into a war with Ukraine, Beijing has created an ingenious “fork” for the Americans, which, in any case, makes China the winner.
In an attempted full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Americans will jump in with 99% probability. The Russian army will be defeated, after which the leaders in Russia will receive such a set of sanctions that the U.S. sanctions against Iran will seem like a most-favored-nation regime. As a result, Russia will not just fall from China’s embrace, but will become something like a tame dog and will agree to everything – up to the Chinese military bases in Murmansk.
There is also a very small chance that the Americans, for whatever reason, will not or cannot interfere in the conflict. But, after all the statements of the White House about supporting Kiev, the U.S. allies in the Pacific, as well as U.S. allies in Europe, will be very surprised by such an outcome.